06
Sep
08

the worst case scenario

Current Projected Track Hurricane Ike - Courtesy The Weather Channel

Current Projected Track Hurricane Ike - Courtesy The Weather Channel

Last time on Storm Surge…

Okay before I was interrupted by the RNC, I was expounding on some basic information on storm surge.  Now that Ike is moving closer to the Florida Straits, it has more of a chance to cross over the loop current in roughly the same manner that Katrina did two years ago.  To briefly recapitulate, the loop current circles the Gulf of Mexico and the point of convergance where the Carribean and Yucatan currents meet in the Gulf of Mexico is of special significance to weather forecasters because they meet over some of the deepest water in the Gulf and over the summer that water gets to be like bathwater e.g. 80-85 degrees F.

The worst case scenario at this point is if Ike moves into the Gulf and if it is affected by the loop current and if it heads for the Louisiana coast that people will not evacuate as diligently as they did for Gustav.  If the wolf shows up and people are not vigilant and disregard the warnings many lives would be in danger.

Storm Surge Simulation  Courtesy NOAA

Storm Surge Simulation Courtesy NOAA

NOAA has a quicktime simulation that shows what storm surge can do if a slow moving CAT 4 hit New Orleans.  Here’s the creepy link: 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/cathedral.mov

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