hurricane ike: countdown to landfall

Hurricane Ike 10:45 PM EDT Courtesy NOAA GOES

Oh the catchy title is just that but the warning is not.  Galveston and the Houston metro area look to take a direct hit.  This is the 100 year storm and the ghostly reincarnation of the great storm of 1900.  Current weather data predicts that Ike will increase in strength to a CAT 3 (Winds 111-130 mph) and possibly a CAT 4 (Winds 131-155 mph) by landfall.

Why is this different than Gustav?  Gustav was also a big storm but it was also moving at a pretty good clip as a result of an Atlantic high nudging it to landfall.  Again, keep in mind that the real devastation comes from storm surge (not unlike a tsunami in many respects) and deluge and with a slow moving storm like Ike, the effect could be catastrophic.  Ike is 700 miles wide with sustained winds at 100 mph with higher gusts.

The storm wall in Galveston is 17 feet high.  The expected storm surge from this monster is 22 feet.  The National Weather Service in Galveston issued the warning that anyone left on the island at landfall will be in danger of losing their life.  Galveston will be inundated.  Indeed the geography of the Galveston- Houston Metro area include the shipping channel that should a storm of a CAT4 or 5 hit, the loss of life could exceed 1.5 million souls.  Governor Perry, in his press conference today was matter of fact in his tone that there will be substantial damage with Ike and that infrastructure will be compromised.  That’s a nice was of saying, no water, no power and no emergency services.

Cruise Cam – Live Web Cam with view of Galveston Bay

Strand Cam – Live Web Cam with view of the Strand on Galveston Island

SurfSide Cam – Web Cam from Texas Department of Public Safety

According to Accuweather, the circulation of Ike is causing water levels to rise 1-3 feet across the entire Gulf Coast from South Florida to Texas. Parts of southern Louisiana will have a 3- to 5-foot water rise with tropical storm conditions through tonight and tomorrow. From 2-4 inches of rain is expected along the immediate coastline of Louisiana overnight. Seas in the central Gulf of Mexico are around 20 to 30 feet, while seas in the western Gulf of Mexico are 10-15 feet.

Ike is still being steered by a strong upper-level high that extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South. This ridge should remain in place into Friday and keep Ike on a west-northwesterly course through tonight. Conditions will be somewhat favorable for intensification over the next 24 hours as water temperatures along Ike’s projected track are at least 82 degrees and wind shear remains relatively weak. Ike is a large hurricane with a small central core, and strong winds extend far away from the eye. Ike’s pressure remains very low for a Category 2 hurricane. This is due to the fact Ike is a very large storm with energy spread out over a huge distance. If these winds can contract, Ike may increase to Category 3 strength tomorrow. The latest results from the intensity forecast models on Ike do not have Ike reaching category 3 strength before landfall. Since intensity forecasting is very difficult, Accuweather says it will continue to monitor the pressure and wind within this big hurricane. Because Ike is such a large storm, tropical storm and hurricane conditions will occur well away from the actual center upon landfall. This will be especially true north and east of where the center comes ashore.

The best estimate right now is for landfall somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Galveston, Texas. Nonetheless, a devastating storm surge is expected for more than 100 miles east of landfall. East of the landfall a storm surge up to 12 to 20 feet can occur with some of the back bays perhaps having a higher storm surge. One should not focus on an exact landfall location at this time, and all interests along the western Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Ike closely.

After landfall, Ike will begin to move more north and then northeast as it gets caught up in the westerlies. A rather rapid increase in forward speed likely. By Sunday morning the remnant tropical rainstorm center should be over northwest Arkansas and move quickly northeast through the middle Mississippi Valley during the day Sunday.

Damage Potential - Courtesy IMAP Weather.com

friends, enemies and frenemies

Frenemies: Yoda and Vader hang at StarWarscon

I’ve been noticing a lot of vague noise about friendships and relationships lately.  It’s been completely serendipitous on my part.  I just seem to be running into the subject again and again.  No doubt the universe is sending me a message to pay attention so I decided to do some reading and research over the past few months.  I’ll be expanding this post over this week with what I’ve discovered.

ike arrives ahead of time

Ike Makes Landfall - Cuba - 9:15PM EDT - Courtesy NOAA GOES Rainbow

the worst case scenario

Current Projected Track Hurricane Ike - Courtesy The Weather Channel

Last time on Storm Surge…

Okay before I was interrupted by the RNC, I was expounding on some basic information on storm surge.  Now that Ike is moving closer to the Florida Straits, it has more of a chance to cross over the loop current in roughly the same manner that Katrina did two years ago.  To briefly recapitulate, the loop current circles the Gulf of Mexico and the point of convergance where the Carribean and Yucatan currents meet in the Gulf of Mexico is of special significance to weather forecasters because they meet over some of the deepest water in the Gulf and over the summer that water gets to be like bathwater e.g. 80-85 degrees F.

The worst case scenario at this point is if Ike moves into the Gulf and if it is affected by the loop current and if it heads for the Louisiana coast that people will not evacuate as diligently as they did for Gustav.  If the wolf shows up and people are not vigilant and disregard the warnings many lives would be in danger.

Storm Surge Simulation Courtesy NOAA

NOAA has a quicktime simulation that shows what storm surge can do if a slow moving CAT 4 hit New Orleans.  Here’s the creepy link: 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/cathedral.mov

here comes hanna

Hanna and Ike - September 5, 2008 Courtesy NOAA

Well most of the day the wind was coming out of the South South East.  I just checked the windspeed and Hanna is up to 70mph just 5mph short of a CAT 1.  So we’ll see what happens overnight, we’re starting to get the first rain bands now as I write this at 11:32pm.  I cannot believe that Ike is headed right for the Gulf again.  Incredible.

okay folks, look I’m just sayin’…

Obama:
Occidental College – two years.
Columbia University – B.A. political science with a specialization in international relations.
Harvard – Juris Doctor (J.D.) magna cum laude
&
Biden:
University of Delaware – B.A. in history and B.A. in political science.
Syracuse University College of Law – Juris Doctor (J.D.)

Versus

McCain:
United States Naval Academy – class rank 894 of 899
&
Palin:
Hawaii Pacific University – 1 semester
North Idaho College – 2 semesters – general study
University of Idaho – 2 semesters – journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College – 1 semester
University of Idaho – 3 semesters – B.A. in journalism

(kudos to Cole Wheeler for the info)

brian ross, my hero

Brian Ross is perhaps one of the most important investigative reporters to come along in years.  His reporting on the DNC and RNC was first rate and I hope that Americans take notice and be aware of what is going on.   In his series of reports for ABC News called ‘On The Money Trail’, he and his producers made bold progress in exposing Congress’ dirty secret.   I am completely underwhelmed by the actions of both parties with regards to lobbist parties disguised as ‘fundraisers’ for charity.  It’s the bane of whatever good government tries to do.  Did I say, ‘good government’?  Does that even exist?  

Have a look at Brian’s reporting here:  On The Money Trail

60 days to Bellus!

                                                

Ahhhh allusion and from one of my all time favorite sci-fi movies.  Vote or die Americans.  Vote or die.  We’re two months out folks.  Giddyup.

let the self-flagellation begin!

AP Photo/Jim Mone

Awww, is it getting a little tuffy wuffy  out there for little Miss No Experience?  People picking on you, sweetie?  Appears so as the Palin spokesman stated as quoted in a release from the Associated Press by reporter, Sara Kugler this afternoon.

“Palin spokeswoman Maria Comella said Obama’s campaign was not   responsible, even though a Palin fundraising letter named the Democratic ticket with the words: “the Obama-Biden Democrats have been vicious in their attacks directed toward me, my family and John McCain.”  In the fundraising letter issued Thursday, she cited “the Obama-Biden Democrats” and said the “misinformation and flat-out lies must be corrected.”

I guess when you hurl lies around and are as mean spirited as the likes of Coulter or Limbaugh it’s tough when the flak starts coming back at you.  In her speech last night she was blatantly condesending and dismissive not only to the work Obama did when he was 23 years old but to any and all community services workers and volunteers across this nation.  Is this the populist rhetoric they tout?  Is that what it means now to be a Republican? 

Did anyone last night wonder when any of the Republican presenters would talk about the housing crisis, affordable healthcare, education…oh no I’m sorry we’re still on the glory of God and his holy war in Iraq.  That’s scary folks.  We are promised the separation of church and state.  Is this what this campaign is going to be about?    Did they even mention the folks on the Gulf Coast digging out from this hurricane?  Was their day off just a put on? 

We’re not partisan, We’re not just supporters of the Obama-Biden ticket.  We’re so much more Mrs. Palin.  We’re Americans baby.  Country First!  Suck it up. 

the ugly step-sister of the mother of all storms

Gustav Aftermath

In my estimation, there were a few reasons why Gustav wasn’t the ’Mother of All Storms” as Mayor Ray Nagin predicted and that’s 1. because the emergency managers were allowed to do their job and the ‘political appointees’ aka “that moron Mike Brown” were removed after the Katrina fiasco.  2.  The mindset is different and people are afraid.  Good.  They should be afraid.  Fear is good.  Fear is a great motivator.  3.  The storm itself hit as a CAT 2 and not a 3 as Katrina was and more to the point, it was not a direct hit but more of a side swipe as Gustav’s entry was at a near 20 degree angle.  But let’s not overlook what really happened which was unprecedented and that was the safe evacuation of close to 2 million people out of the danger zone and who know how many lives were saved by this amazing achievment?

What happens next time and how we stop the devastating storm surge is the real task ahead.  The Army Corps of Engineers is building barriers out in the wetlands.  It might be more expedient to just rebuild the wetlands and let them work.

But what exactly is storm surge?  Why is it such a danger?  Well, simply put, storm surge is water and lots of it.  (to be continued — the RNC has interrupted my bliss)

No Storm Surge - New Orleans, LA - Courtesy NOAA

Storm Surge with slow moving CAT 4 Courtesy NOAA