Hurricane Ike stengthens as he comes ashore

Hurricane Ike - 7:30 PM EDT Courtesy Accuweather

This storm is going to change very quickly over the next few hours and things have changed quite a bit in the last 24 hours.  Ike is pickng up speed as it comes ashore and is now predicted to make landfall MUCH earlier than previously predicted.  Not early Saturday morning but perhaps within the next few hours well before midnight as it is only 110 miles now off the coast of Galveston and the Bolivar Peninsula.   The peninsula looks to take the full brunt of the storm as it is in the way of the very powerful Northeast Quadrant of the storm which historically is the most dangerous part of any hurricane.

I got an email from a subscriber this afternoon about storm surge.

“Why are they (the media) saying that the storm surge in Galveston will be over 20 feet but further down the coast only up to 7 feet.  Why is it so different even though it’s within a 20 mile area?”

First, thanks for your very adroit question and second, the reason is simply geography.  As in tsunami conditions, as the waves come in the water is coming up the continental shelf. Therefore you’ll see greater damage where there is less resistance e.g. where the shelf has a longer sloping, gentle grade.

That storm surge will be much greater and catastrophic in destruction than where the shelf has a sharper drop off.

That’s one reason.  Another reason is in this case parts of the Houston area could see CAT 4 style storm surge because the land is low lying (bayou wetland areas) and indeed at a lower elevation than at seaside.  In addition, coastal communities south of the Houston area down the coast will not receive as much of a punch from the wind as from the eye landfall area and the Northeast Quadrant.  The eye is roughly 75 miles wide at present.

Storm Surge Diagram - Courtesy NOAA

According to the latest reports from KHOU in Houston, there are more than 24,000 folks that stayed to ride out the storm on Galveston Island.  Hurricane force winds should begin to hit the island by 6:00 pm CDT this evening and going through the night until daybreak.  When will it end?  The current prediction is sometime Saturday afternoon.

hurricane ike: countdown to landfall

Hurricane Ike 10:45 PM EDT Courtesy NOAA GOES

Oh the catchy title is just that but the warning is not.  Galveston and the Houston metro area look to take a direct hit.  This is the 100 year storm and the ghostly reincarnation of the great storm of 1900.  Current weather data predicts that Ike will increase in strength to a CAT 3 (Winds 111-130 mph) and possibly a CAT 4 (Winds 131-155 mph) by landfall.

Why is this different than Gustav?  Gustav was also a big storm but it was also moving at a pretty good clip as a result of an Atlantic high nudging it to landfall.  Again, keep in mind that the real devastation comes from storm surge (not unlike a tsunami in many respects) and deluge and with a slow moving storm like Ike, the effect could be catastrophic.  Ike is 700 miles wide with sustained winds at 100 mph with higher gusts.

The storm wall in Galveston is 17 feet high.  The expected storm surge from this monster is 22 feet.  The National Weather Service in Galveston issued the warning that anyone left on the island at landfall will be in danger of losing their life.  Galveston will be inundated.  Indeed the geography of the Galveston- Houston Metro area include the shipping channel that should a storm of a CAT4 or 5 hit, the loss of life could exceed 1.5 million souls.  Governor Perry, in his press conference today was matter of fact in his tone that there will be substantial damage with Ike and that infrastructure will be compromised.  That’s a nice was of saying, no water, no power and no emergency services.

Cruise Cam – Live Web Cam with view of Galveston Bay

Strand Cam – Live Web Cam with view of the Strand on Galveston Island

SurfSide Cam – Web Cam from Texas Department of Public Safety

According to Accuweather, the circulation of Ike is causing water levels to rise 1-3 feet across the entire Gulf Coast from South Florida to Texas. Parts of southern Louisiana will have a 3- to 5-foot water rise with tropical storm conditions through tonight and tomorrow. From 2-4 inches of rain is expected along the immediate coastline of Louisiana overnight. Seas in the central Gulf of Mexico are around 20 to 30 feet, while seas in the western Gulf of Mexico are 10-15 feet.

Ike is still being steered by a strong upper-level high that extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South. This ridge should remain in place into Friday and keep Ike on a west-northwesterly course through tonight. Conditions will be somewhat favorable for intensification over the next 24 hours as water temperatures along Ike’s projected track are at least 82 degrees and wind shear remains relatively weak. Ike is a large hurricane with a small central core, and strong winds extend far away from the eye. Ike’s pressure remains very low for a Category 2 hurricane. This is due to the fact Ike is a very large storm with energy spread out over a huge distance. If these winds can contract, Ike may increase to Category 3 strength tomorrow. The latest results from the intensity forecast models on Ike do not have Ike reaching category 3 strength before landfall. Since intensity forecasting is very difficult, Accuweather says it will continue to monitor the pressure and wind within this big hurricane. Because Ike is such a large storm, tropical storm and hurricane conditions will occur well away from the actual center upon landfall. This will be especially true north and east of where the center comes ashore.

The best estimate right now is for landfall somewhere between Matagorda Bay and Galveston, Texas. Nonetheless, a devastating storm surge is expected for more than 100 miles east of landfall. East of the landfall a storm surge up to 12 to 20 feet can occur with some of the back bays perhaps having a higher storm surge. One should not focus on an exact landfall location at this time, and all interests along the western Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Ike closely.

After landfall, Ike will begin to move more north and then northeast as it gets caught up in the westerlies. A rather rapid increase in forward speed likely. By Sunday morning the remnant tropical rainstorm center should be over northwest Arkansas and move quickly northeast through the middle Mississippi Valley during the day Sunday.

Damage Potential - Courtesy IMAP Weather.com